Market sizing & forecasting methodology
One method across every industry we cover: define the market tightly, build it bottom-up, check it top-down, test it with experts, and reconcile until the numbers agree.
From scope to final forecast in sixteen steps
Four phases, each ending in a checked output that the next phase builds on.
- Market Definition & Scope
- Segmentation Framework
- Company & Product Mapping
- Demand-Side Assessment
- Supply-Side Assessment
- Volume / Patient / Procedure / Installed Base Analysis
- Pricing & Revenue Benchmarking
- Company Revenue Assessment
- Bottom-Up Market Build-Up
- Top-Down Validation
- Primary Interviews & Expert Validation
- Market Triangulation
- Historical Market Estimation
- Forecasting & Scenario Analysis
- Regional & Country-Level Aggregation
- Final Market Size & Forecast
What happens at each stage
Shown here with healthcare examples, our first practice. In other industries the same steps use that industry's indicators, such as production capacity, installed base, subscribers or shipments.
Define
Pin down exactly what is being measured: products, technologies, applications, end users and geographies, and who competes in them.
Market Definition & Segmentation
The market was defined based on the scope of products, technologies, applications, end users, and geographic markets covered in the study. The assessment encompassed pharmaceuticals, medical devices & equipment, diagnostics & monitoring, biotechnology & life sciences, advanced therapies, and healthcare software & services, with clearly defined inclusion and exclusion criteria to maintain consistent market boundaries and avoid double counting.
Company & Product Mapping
Key market participants were identified and mapped across pharmaceutical companies, medical device manufacturers, diagnostic providers, biotechnology companies, advanced therapy developers, healthcare technology providers, and service organizations. Their product portfolios, technologies, applications, revenues, geographic presence, and competitive positioning were analyzed to establish the market landscape.
Measure
Collect the evidence: demand and supply indicators, volumes, prices and company revenues, from secondary sources and interviews.
Demand-Side Assessment
Market demand was assessed using relevant indicators including patient population, disease prevalence and incidence, diagnosis and treatment rates, procedure volumes, healthcare utilization, installed equipment base, healthcare expenditure, hospital infrastructure, technology adoption, and treatment penetration. The assessment was tailored to the specific characteristics of each healthcare segment.
Supply-Side Assessment
The supply landscape was evaluated through analysis of manufacturing capacity, production volumes, installed infrastructure, technology availability, distribution networks, service capacity, supply chains, and the presence of established and emerging market participants.
Volume-Based Market Assessment
Market volumes were assessed using relevant quantitative indicators such as units sold, doses, prescriptions, procedures, diagnostic tests, patients treated, devices installed, subscriptions, users, and healthcare facilities served, depending on the characteristics of the respective market.
Price & Revenue Benchmarking
Product prices, treatment costs, diagnostic fees, device ASPs, software subscription fees, licensing revenues, service charges, and other relevant pricing metrics were benchmarked across products, countries, end users, and distribution channels.
Company Revenue Assessment
Company-level revenues were analyzed using annual reports, financial disclosures, segment reporting, product information, management commentary, company filings, and industry sources. Relevant revenues were allocated to the defined market scope and mapped across products, applications, geographies, and end users.
Build & validate
Size the market two independent ways, test it with experts and reconcile the differences into one base-year number.
Bottom-Up Market Estimation
Market estimates were developed from the country, product, company, application, and end-user levels using market-specific relationships such as volume × price, patients × treatment penetration × treatment cost, procedures × utilization × price, installed base × replacement demand × ASP, and subscription base × average revenue per user.
Top-Down Market Assessment
Bottom-up estimates were cross-validated against industry-level revenues, healthcare expenditure, pharmaceutical and medical device sales, procedure volumes, diagnostic activity, market shares, government statistics, trade data, and other relevant healthcare indicators.
Primary Research & Expert Validation
Primary research was conducted with industry executives, healthcare providers, physicians, procurement professionals, distributors, manufacturers, technology developers, researchers, investors, consultants, and other subject-matter experts. These interactions were used to validate market size, pricing, adoption levels, competitive dynamics, technology trends, and market developments.
Market Triangulation
Market estimates derived from company revenues, demand-side indicators, supply-side assessments, volume analysis, pricing benchmarks, patient and procedure data, and primary research were triangulated. Variances across the different approaches were evaluated and key assumptions were refined to arrive at the final validated market estimates.
Forecast & finalise
Rebuild history, project ten years with scenarios, and aggregate country models into regions and a global total.
Historical Market Estimation
Historical market values were established using country-level, segment-level, company-level, volume, pricing, and adoption data. Historical trends were analyzed to assess changes in market penetration, product adoption, pricing, competitive structure, healthcare utilization, and technology deployment.
Forecasting & Scenario Analysis
Future market development was projected based on disease and demographic trends, healthcare infrastructure expansion, technology adoption, product launches, regulatory approvals, clinical pipeline developments, reimbursement changes, manufacturing capacity, pricing trends, investment activity, and competitive dynamics.
Regional & Country-Level Aggregation
Market estimates were developed at the country level and subsequently aggregated into regional and global markets. Differences in healthcare infrastructure, disease burden, reimbursement, regulatory environment, adoption, pricing, accessibility, and market maturity were incorporated into the country-level assessments.
Final Market Validation
Final consistency checks were performed across products, companies, applications, end users, countries, regions, volumes, prices, and growth rates. The final market size was established following reconciliation of the different estimation approaches and validation of segment-level and regional market totals.
What “Reviewed by Analyst” and “Fact Checked” mean
Every published report and press release carries these two marks. They are given only after both checks are complete.
The sector analyst who built the model reviews the full report: segment and regional splits reconcile to one market total, the forecast follows from the stated drivers, and the narrative matches the numbers. A research manager then signs off before publication.
Named facts are checked against their sources: company actions, approvals, deal values, dates, executive quotes and regulatory references. Each recent development listed in a report links to its source so readers can verify it.
The core model adapts to each industry and sector
The calculation changes with the category: a drug market is driven by patients and doses, a device market by installed base and procedures.
| Healthcare sector (example) | Primary market estimation basis |
|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals | Patient population, diagnosis and treatment rates, treatment penetration, prescriptions/doses, treatment cycles, and average selling prices |
| Medical Devices & Equipment | Installed base, new installations, procedure volumes, replacement cycles, utilization rates, and ASPs |
| Diagnostics & Monitoring | Diagnostic tests/procedures, testing frequency, installed equipment base, utilization, and average price per test/procedure |
| Biotechnology & Life Sciences | Product revenues, research and laboratory activity, instrument placements, consumables utilization, and technology adoption |
| Advanced Therapies | Eligible patient population, treatment penetration, treatment cycles, therapy utilization, and revenue per treatment |
| Healthcare Software & Services | Healthcare facilities/users, software adoption, subscriptions/licenses, utilization, transaction volumes, and average revenue per user/facility |
Example: CAR-T cell therapy
Treated patients by indication and country × realised price per infusion, checked against reported sales of approved products such as Carvykti, Yescarta, Breyanzi and Kymriah.
See it applied →Example: radiopharmaceuticals
Company revenues aggregated bottom-up, checked against isotope and dose volumes, benchmarked prices and nuclear medicine procedure counts.
See it applied →Want to audit a number?
Our analysts walk clients through the assumptions behind any figure in a report.